冷热交替洗脸可以缩小毛孔吗 冷热交替洗脸有什么好处

6月16日，国家统计局发布了5月份国民经济运行最新数据。

依托这些高校教育资源，宁波可以大力推进高端航运人才培训，加快发展航海教育与培训，以及加强航运业务操作人才培训。2003年，浙江省、宁波市两级政府分别提出水运强省和以港兴市的构想，一系列扶持政策激发了民间投资航运业的信心。

影响排位的因素很多，但人才作为产业发展最主要驱动力的作用不容忽视。高洋江表示，过去半年，宁波的货代企业一直是痛并快乐着。6月2日，中国国际海运集装箱(集团)股份有限公司在深圳总部召开2020年度股东大会，董事长兼CEO麦伯良在对行业发展情况进行研判后提出，由于集装箱运输仍然供不应求，今年年内一箱难求的局面很难扭转。上周好不容易招到一个，但上了两天班又离职了。打造船队聚拢船力运力宁波已在积极行动，探索破局之道。

近年来留不住学生，毕业生留甬率低。一箱难求愈演愈烈去年下半年开始，因为全球疫情持续蔓延，欧美港口积压严重，大量集装箱滞留海外，集装箱一箱难求。所有这些技术，在15世纪50年代随着古腾堡印刷机的发明，结合在一起。

的确，汽车帮助改变了国际关系，美国作为全球超级大国的崛起，通过它在石油和汽车工业主导地位，获得了支持和扩充。使这成为可能的创新是移动式屠宰线，在线上屠杀、屠宰、加工和包装各种动物产品，然后装入铁路车厢快速高效地运往全国各地。更重要的是，它为人类创造了新的、非凡的可能性，需要用新的方式理解和阐明这个世界。图1. 美国2007-2016年手机市场的智能手机份额(百分数)许多投资者也对此深表怀疑。

图7. 6 -15世纪西欧手稿的数量 (Data source: Buringh, E., & Van Zanden, J. L., 2009)这个背景很重要而且并非巧合，在欧洲图书印刷产生这么大的影响，而几个世纪前在中国和朝鲜的影响却很有限[43]。那里的大学渴望出版和消费知识[50];但也去了里昂、巴黎和瓦伦西亚[51]。

它是通过技术融合产生的：关键技术在特定时间点汇聚在一起，从而以具有竞争力的成本创造出全新的产品或服务。竞争、技术进步和规模，进一步压低了图书价格。钢铁、石油和橡胶取代了铁、动物饲料和木材，对原材料的影响同样深远。MarketWatch甚至发表评论文章，建议苹果拔掉接通iPhone的插头或在竞争激烈的业务中冒有损声誉的风险[5,6]。

加速因素采用新产品和服务，释放出强大的系统动力，会加速颠覆的过程。个人第一次买得起图书了。就古腾堡在美因茨(Mainz)印刷第一本圣经后几年，这座城市被洗劫[49]。技术融合21世纪初，随着销量的增加、竞争的加剧、资本和创新的投资降低了成本，提高了性能，每种技术都受益于各种市场的改进。

事实证明，吸引和留住人才的举措是一招妙棋。制动机制开始弱化。

它们通过推动(法律、法规、权力)和拉动(激励、欲望、敬畏)创造必要的社会稳定，从而使更高层次、更复杂的文明成为可能，进而导致进一步的创新、竞争优势、军事能力、繁荣和权力。图3. 纽约市叫车服务市场2010-2019(乘用车/月)Data source: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission2 20世纪汽车怎么改变了社会技术融合这种模式在历史上反复出现，汽车的诞生更是如此。

随着我们进入人类历史上最具颠覆性的十年，每个经济部门都处于瓦解的边缘，倘若失败，事关重大。例如，硅谷等地区的组织系统就像19世纪的纽约一样，在提高技术能力方面远比美国其他地区更有效。结果证明，所有这些障碍是变量，而不是常量，消失得非常之快。采用是非线性的，并遵循S曲线：在所有的技术颠覆中，速度一开始看起来很慢，因为一个新产品的市场渗透率不到1%-2%;而后达到一个临界点;然后加速通过指数阶段，直到产品接近市场的80%。尽管1900年，汽车似乎面临不可逾越的障碍，但快速普及还是发生了。在颠覆的早期阶段，这些制动机制会给变革带来强大的阻力。

通常情况是这样的，颠覆者来自核心市场之外。随着需求增加，市场以可预测的方式做出反应和适应，企业家、供应商，甚至政府都争相利用新的机会，投资资金大量涌入。

地理也在关键资源的可获得性方面扮演至关重要的角色，尤其是土壤肥力、淡水、能源、材料以及贸易和军事能力的运输路线。然而，智能手机的影响远远超出了经济范畴。

看起来像是路障的，不过是减速带而已。教会和国家开始失去对信息获取的控制。

这取决于组织系统能在多大程度上强迫或鼓励生产力和技术创新，使全社会能够作出最佳决策，并管理、控制、治理和影响其全体居民。用古往今来的事物发展规律证实这种观念的必然性和规律性。例如，1910-1920年间，存车处(garage laborers)的人数增长600%[28]。实际上，驾照考试已成了青少年的文化仪式，从童年到成年的新标志。

在10年内，美国的每个州都对天然气征税(见图6)[23]。他们带来了世俗的学术、知识和思想，定义了欧洲的新身份，带来了持久的变化[42]。

它改变了我们生活和工作的地方，也改变了我们建造学校、商店、医院和工厂的地方。资料与注释：I James Arbib & Tony Seba，Rethinking HumanityFive Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom，RethinkX, June 20201 Capabilities can be thought of across many dimensions. For example, improvement in computer processing is usually measured in number of transistors per unit of space (inch). But these transistors also improve in speed, so improvement in processing power is a combination of both. Size, speed, and also durability are all relevant measures. Lithium-ion batteries improve in cost/kWh stored, but also in energy density, charge times, and lifetime. While the cost curve measures only $/unit of storage the other measures of capability are also relevant. A cheap battery that is huge, for example, would be of no use for a smartphone.2 Fiegerman, S. (2012, June 29). The Experts Speak: Heres What People Predicted Would Happen When The iPhone Came Out Business Insider. Retrieved from here.3 Lieberman, D. (2007, April 30). CEO Forum: Microsofts Ballmer having a great time. USA Today. Retrieved from here.4 Marsel, K. (July 30, 2007). Analyst: iPhone is Harry Potter squib of cell phones. AppleInsider. Retrieved from here.5 Dormehl, L. (2017, June 26). Apple should pull the plug: 10 iPhone predictions from 2007. Cult of Mac. Retrieved from here.6 Mainstream analysts and consultants should have learned from the recent major telecoms disruption. When hired by AT&T (then the largest telecoms company in the world) in 1985 to predict the size of the mobile market by the year 2000, McKinsey came back with an estimate of 900,000. The number was 120 million. It was out by a factor of 120. The consultant was not alone. Vinod Khosla, the Silicon Valley investor, looked at forecasts by major technology research consultancies between 2002 and 2010 and found they routinely underestimated growth in the mobile phone market by a factor of eight.7 Gupta, R. (2016, May 9). Nokia CEO ended his speech saying: We didnt do anything wrong, but somehow we lost. LinkedIn. Retrieved from here.8 Macrotrends. (2020). Apple Market Cap 2006-2020 | AAPL. Retrieved from here.9 Statista. (2013, July 25). Global market share held by Nokia smartphones from 1st quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2013 [Data File]. Retrieved from here.10 Statista. (2020, February 27). Nokias Net Sales 1999-2019 [Data File]. Retrieved from here.11 Rosenfeld, M. J., Thomas, R. J., & Hausen, S. (2019). Disintermediating your friends: How online dating in the United States displaces other ways of meeting. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(36), 1775317758. Retrieved from here.12 Carson, B. (2017, April 14). Uber booked $20 billion in rides in 2016, but its still losing billions. Business Insider. Retrieved from here.13 Damodaran, A. (2014, June 18). Uber Isnt Worth $17 Billion. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved from here.14 Shahan, Z. (2020, January 19). Tesla Model 3 = 7th Best Selling Car In USA. Clean Technica. Retrieved from here.15 United States Department of Commerce and Labor. (1909). Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 224: Prices of Domestic Iron. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.16 Bramley, A (2015, December 3). How Chicagos Slaughterhouse Spectacles Paved The Way For Big Meat. NPR. Retrieved from here.17 The 1885 Otto engine had a mass/power ratio of 270 g/W while the 1908 Ford Model T had a mass/power ratio of 5 g/W, an improvement of 54x. Smil, V. (2013). Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.18 Gross, D. (1997). Forbes: Greatest Business Stories of All Time: 20 Inspiring Tales of Entrepreneurs Who Changed the Way We Live and Do Business. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.19 RethinkX estimate.20 Calder, L. (2001). Financing the American Dream: A Cultural History of Consumer Credit. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.21 Jakle, J. A., & Sculle, K. A. (1994). The Gas Station in America. Baltimore, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press. Retrieved from here.22 Jamal, H. (2017, January 22). Road Construction Machinery Uses of Road Construction Tools and Equipment. About Civil. Retrieved from here.23 U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. (1995, September). Significant Features of Fiscal Federalism: Budget Processes and Tax Systems (Report No. M197). Washington D.C.: USACIR. Retrieved from here.24 Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.25 Long, W. (1903, August 4). New Bills: Motor-Cars Bill (Lords). UK Parliament. House of Commons. Hansard. 4 (126). Retrieved from here.26 Carriage Association of America. (1904, April). The Carriage Monthly. (40). Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Ware Brothers Publishing.27 Carriage Association of America. (1912, December). The Future of the Horse Vehicle. The Carriage Monthly. (48). Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Ware Brothers Publishing. From Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.28 Edwards, A. (1943, June 30). Sixteenth Census of the United States: 1940, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States 1870-1930. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.29 Smil, V. (2013). Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.30 Donlan, T. G. (2008, May 8). A World of Wealth: How Capitalism Turns Profits Into Progress. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Financial Times Press.31 Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.32 Edwards, A. (1943, June 30). Sixteenth Census of the United States: 1940, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States 1870-1930. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.33 Olmstead, A. L., & Rhode, P. W. (2001). Reshaping the Landscape: The Impact and Diffusion of the Tractor in American Agriculture, 1910-1960. The Journal of Economic History, 61(3), 663698. JSTOR. Retrieved from here.34 In another reinforcing feedback loop, thanks to federal and military incentives, 83% of U.S. population growth in the 1950s and 1970s took place in the suburbs as the suburban population grew from 36 million to 74 million people. Jackson, K. (1987, April 16). Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. Quoted from Poleg, D. (2019, October 31). Rethinking Real Estate: A Roadmap to Technologys Impact on the Worlds Largest Asset Class. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Also, here: Locke, J. L., & Wright, B. (2019). The American Yawp: A Massively Collaborative Open U.S. History Textbook. The Affluent Society, II: Rise of the Suburbs (Vol. 2). Palo Alto, California: Stanford University Press. Retrieved from here.35 Nicolaides, B., & Wiese, A. (2017). Suburbanization in the United States after 1945. Oxford Research Encyclopedias, American History. Retrieved from here.36 According to the American Automobile Association, there were more than 2,000 free car camps by 1924. The same year, a single camp in Yellowstone National Park received over 100,000 auto campers, according to the National Park Service. The Chicago Tribune predicted in 1929 that more than 5 million Americans would camp with their automobiles that year. Henderson, L. (2010). Americas Roadside Lodging: The Rise and Fall of the Motel. Historia, 19, 2343. Retrieved from here.37 Craven, W. F., & Cate, J. L. (1984). The Army Air Forces in World War II: Men and Planes (Vol. 6). Chicago, Illinois: University of Chicago Press. Retrieved from here.38 Ford built 6,790 B-24 bombers, 282,354 Jeeps, and 42,676 Army/Navy Cargo Trucks. It also produced 13,893 Universal Carriers for British Commonwealth nations. Jackson, D. (2020, February 27). Ford Motor Car Company in World War Two. US Auto Industry World War Two. Retrieved from here.39 Linear forecasts, which ignore feedbacks and assume all else remains equal, are not credible representations of future possibilities. The scenarios they depict are not plausible and we urge readers confronted by them to be duly skeptical.40The migration of Greek intellectuals to Europe (especially Italy) in the years between the Sack of Constantinople (1204) and the Ottoman Conquest of Constantinople (1453) was essential to the discovery and revival of Greek and Roman studies that led to the European Renaissance in humanism and science. How did the Fall of Constantinople change the Renaissance in Italy? Daily History. Retrieved from here.41 Byrne, J. P. (2017). The World of Renaissance Italy. Santa Barbara, California: ABC-CLIO.42 Examples of direct influence abound. John Argyropouloss students included Leonardo da Vinci, Piero di Cosimo de Medici, and Lorenzo de Medici, while Johann Reuchlin and Barlam of Seminara taught Petrarch. Copernicus learned from the writings of Besilius Bessarion. Matula, J. (2006). John Argyropoulos and his Importance for the Latin West. Philosophica, (7). Retrieved from here.Hay, D. (1961) The Italian Renaissance in its Historical Background. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Goddu, A. (2010, January 25). Copernicus and the Aristotelian Tradition Education, Reading, and Philosophy in Copernicuss Path to Heliocentrism. Leiden, Netherlands: Brill.43 The first printed book was found in China dating from 868 CE. Daley, J. (2016, May 11). Five Things to Know About the Diamond Sutra, the Worlds Oldest Dated Printed Book. Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved from here.44 For example, Christopher Columbus, a sailor from Genoa, became an explorer in Lisbon and, after being turned down by he kings of Portugal, France, and England, got funding from the queen and king of Castile, Len, and Aragon (Spain) to sail West to bring back spices, gold, and silk from Asia. Mach, A. (2011, October 10). Christopher Columbus: Five things you thought you knew about the explorer. Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved from here.45 Kurlansky, M. (2016). Paper: Paging Through History. New York, New York: W. W. Norton & Company46 Kovarik, B. (2015). Revolutions in Communication: Media History from Gutenberg to the Digital Age. New York, New York: Bloomsbury Publishing USA.47 Ibid.48 Ibid.49 The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. Mainz. Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved from here.50 Kurlansky, M. (2016). Paper: Paging Through History. New York, New York: W. W. Norton & Company.51 Some of the first books printed in the French language were thanks in large part to German talent fleeing violence. Tucker, D. H., Unwin, P. S., & Unwin, G. (2017, November 15). History of publishing The age of early printing: 14501550. Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved from here.52 Chase-Dunn, C., & Lerro, B. (2013). Social Change: Globalization from the Stone Age to the Present. Abingdon, United Kingdom: Routledge.53 For example, an amendment to the constitution, a change in monetary system from the gold standard to fiat money, or an expansion of democratic representation to women or minorities.。

本文所谈颠覆，是颠覆式科技或科学技术上的颠覆，着重科技重大突破在打破沉寂，推动社会、生活发展方面重大价值。线性的、机械的、封闭的思维方式，使我们无法提前看到颠覆的速度和程度。

地中海地区再次成为当地思想和概念发展的大熔炉，而这些是早期重新发现并从东方引进的(这里保持了较高水平的技术能力和社会复杂性)[40]。如果没有这些技术中的任何一项达到成本和性能的门槛，iPhone就不会如此具有颠覆性。在任何时代或社会中都没有正确的组合，每个方面的进化和发展的组合都不是计划或设计的，而是通过实验(尝试和痛苦的错误)和竞争，随着时间的推移出现(自组织)。随着经济、文化、建筑环境和治理结构与汽车工业的共同发展，变得越来越固步自封。

1914年，福特把工人的工资提高了一倍，引起整个行业乃至更广泛的震惊。1 智能手机怎么颠覆了石油行业?2007年1月，当史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)在旧金山苹果世界(Macworld)大会上发布第一代苹果手机(iPhone)时，满怀期待的人群全是技术人员、通讯专家和苹果的忠实粉丝。

但是，与这种非凡经济增长的同时，也有价值毁灭。它的影响是直接而深远的，现在一页书只需几分钟就能打印出来，比手写稿快200倍(不包括排字的时间)[46]。

结果是，从12世纪开始，欧洲出版的手稿数量剧增，由此产生了对信息和知识的进一步需求，而僧侣们几乎无法跟上这种需求。国家公园和汽车，这两个相对新的概念，使彼此的成长、受到欢迎的程度和文化，在美国人的想象中占有重要地位。